2024 has been a year of political intrigue, economic resilience, and social challenges for Thailand. The country navigated a turbulent period, characterized by dramatic leadership changes, economic recovery efforts, and unresolved societal tensions. Below is a detailed analysis of the year’s major events and their implications.

1. Political Highlights: A Year of Power Shifts and Historical Firsts

The Rise of Paetongtarn Shinawatra (aka Ung Ing)

• In August 2024, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, at 37 years old, became Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister. Her election followed the removal of Srettha Thavisin by the Constitutional Court, which marked a sudden end to his tenure.
• Paetongtarn’s ascension symbolized both a political renewal and a continuation of the Shinawatra family’s influence. She is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who controversially returned to Thailand under conditional release after years of exile.
• The political landscape remains polarized. Paetongtarn’s leadership is viewed as a potential turning point for younger, reform-minded voters, but her coalition with conservative parties has drawn criticism for compromising with traditional elites.

Thaksin Shinawatra’s Return

• After 15 years in self-imposed exile, Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand in August 2024. His homecoming was met with mixed reactions, with supporters celebrating his presence while critics viewed it as a symbol of entrenched political power.
• Thaksin’s sentence reduction from an 8-year prison verdict on corruption charges (reduced to a single year of parole) fuelled speculation about the behind-the-scenes political deals that facilitated his return.

Street Protests and Political Tensions

• Pro-democracy movements, largely dormant since the COVID-19 pandemic, resurfaced in 2024, though at a smaller scale. Activists expressed concerns over continued military influence in politics, limited reforms, and perceived concessions to elite interests.
• Youth-led groups called for constitutional reform, targeting the military-backed 2017 constitution, which entrenched the role of the Senate in selecting prime ministers.

Dissolution of the Move Forward Party

• In August 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party (MFP), citing allegations of violating electoral laws.
• The decision marked a significant setback for the progressive party, which had garnered widespread support, particularly among younger voters, for its reformist agenda.
• Critics viewed the dissolution as politically motivated, aimed at preserving the entrenched power structures and silencing dissent. The move sparked nationwide protests, as supporters condemned the erosion of democratic freedoms.
• The dissolution underscored the ongoing tension between Thailand’s conservative establishment and movements pushing for change.

Divisions in the civil-military political party Palang Pracharath (PPRP)

• In particular between factions led by General Prawit Wongsuwan and Captain Thamanat Prompow. In August 2024, tensions escalated when Thamanat was excluded from a cabinet position, leading him to publicly sever communication with General Prawit.
• These internal conflicts have impacted the party’s political alliances. In August 2024, the Pheu Thai Party decided to exclude the PPRP from its coalition government, citing dissatisfaction with General Prawit’s absence during a crucial parliamentary vote.
• Former Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who stepped down as a political leader in 2023, has largely distanced himself from the turmoil within the PPRP and its leadership struggles.
• Although he retains symbolic influence as a former coup leader and key figure in Thailand’s recent political history, his decision to align with the United Thai Nation Party (UTNP) after leaving PPRP has further weakened PPRP’s unity.
• Prayuth’s reduced active involvement in politics has created a leadership vacuum in the broader civil-military political network, amplifying the divisions between above mentioned key figures.
• His absence from the PPRP’s conflicts highlights the fragmentation of the once-dominant military-political alliance.

Divisions within the Thai armed forces

• Traditionally a key player in the nation’s politics, the divisions are rooted in personal loyalties and political affiliations.
• Rival factions have emerged, often aligning with competing political figures such as General Prawit Wongsuwan and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
• These divisions have occasionally caused friction in the military’s unified stance, reflecting broader political polarization and weakening the army’s traditional role as a cohesive political arbiter.

2. Economic Developments: Recovery Amid Challenges

Economic Growth and Rebounding Tourism

Thailand’s economy grew by 3.0% year-on-year in Q3, its fastest rate in two years. This recovery was driven by:

• A strong rebound in tourism, with international arrivals surpassing 20 million in 2024, thanks to easing global travel restrictions.
• An uptick in exports, particularly in agriculture, electronics, and automobiles, as global demand improved.
• Increased private investments, supported by government incentives.

Challenges to Growth

Despite growth, Thailand faces significant economic hurdles:

• Household debt remains alarmingly high at 89.6% of GDP, one of the highest ratios in Asia.
• Public debt rose to 63.28% of GDP, limiting fiscal flexibility.
• Small businesses and low-income households struggled to recover fully from the pandemic’s economic fallout.

Government Initiatives

The government launched several measures to stimulate the economy:

• Digital wallet program: A flagship policy distributing 10,000 baht to 45 million citizens to boost domestic consumption.
• Infrastructure investments: Projects focusing on transportation, renewable energy, and smart cities aimed at long-term economic sustainability.
• The Bank of Thailand reduced interest rates to 2.25% to encourage borrowing and investments.

Regional Trade and Economic Partnerships

• Thailand strengthened its position within ASEAN, leveraging the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to expand trade relations with China, Japan, and South Korea.
• Negotiations for closer ties with the European Union also progressed, with a focus on free trade agreements.

Thai Land-Bridge Project

• The proposed land-bridge between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea continues to spark controversy due to environmental concerns and opposition from local communities.
• While the government touts the project as a strategic trade and logistics hub to rival the Malacca Strait, critics argue it risks ecological damage and displacement of residents without guaranteed economic benefits.

Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC)

• The EEC remains a cornerstone of Thailand’s industrial and technological development strategy.
• Aiming to attract foreign investment in high-tech industries, critics point to delays in infrastructure projects and challenges in creating a skilled workforce to meet the ambitious goals.
• The EEC’s uneven benefits across regions have also fuelled inequality concerns.

Legalization of the Black Market Economy

• Proposals to legalize certain black-market activities, such as casinos, remain highly divisive.
• Advocates argue it would generate tax revenue and reduce illicit activities, but opponents worry it could increase crime, corruption, and social problems.
• Cultural resistance, given Thailand’s Buddhist values, adds to the controversy.

Finance Ministry vs. Central Bank on Interest Rates.

• Persistent disagreements between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand over interest rate policy reflect tensions in balancing growth and inflation.
• The Finance Ministry often pushes for lower rates to stimulate the economy, while the central bank emphasizes monetary stability.
• These disputes underscore differing approaches to navigating Thailand’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

3. Social Developments: Persistent Inequalities and Shifting Dynamics

Widening Inequalities

• Despite economic recovery, income inequality remained a pressing issue. Urban centers like Bangkok saw renewed economic activity, but rural areas, particularly in the northeast, struggled to keep pace.
• The rural-urban divide was exacerbated by limited access to quality education, healthcare, and infrastructure in less developed regions.

Youth Activism and Political Awareness

Gen Z and millennial voters became increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction with traditional political systems. Social media platforms like Twitter and TikTok played a critical role in amplifying their concerns. Activists demanded:

• Educational reforms, particularly in addressing outdated curriculums and underfunded schools.
• Greater attention to climate change policies, as Thailand faced extreme weather events in 2024, including severe flooding in the southern provinces.

Environmental Issues

• Thailand experienced its hottest summer on record, with temperatures exceeding 45°C in some regions, highlighting the urgent need for climate adaptation policies.
• The government announced ambitious targets to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, though critics argue progress remains slow.

On the international scene

• Thailand pursued its bid to join both the BRICS group and the OECD, reflecting its ambition to strengthen its role on the global stage.
• The BRICS application signaled Thailand’s interest in closer ties with emerging economies and diversifying its strategic partnerships,
• Joining the OECD highlighted its commitment to aligning with global standards in governance, trade, and economic development.
• These dual efforts underscore Thailand’s balancing act between its traditional Western alliances and its growing connections with the Global South.

4. Key Events of 2024

January: The Thai economy starts the year with sluggish growth, prompting early discussions on fiscal stimulus.

April: The Thai New Year (Songkran) is celebrated with record-breaking tourism numbers, signaling a post-pandemic revival.

August: Paetongtarn Shinawatra is elected Prime Minister, and Thaksin Shinawatra returns to Thailand. Dissolution of the Move Forward Party.

September: Severe floods devastate southern Thailand, displacing thousands and prompting emergency government response.

November: Thailand hosts the APEC Summit, emphasizing its leadership in sustainable development and trade partnerships.

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Perspectives for 2025

Political Outlook

• Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government faces the challenge of maintaining coalition unity while pushing for long-overdue reforms, particularly in revising the 2017 constitution.
• Increased protests are likely if key demands from pro-democracy groups are ignored, including reducing military influence in politics.

Economic Projections

The NESDC forecasts growth of 2.3%-3.3% for 2025, supported by:

• Continued recovery in tourism, projected to reach pre-pandemic levels.
• Government-backed infrastructure projects and increased foreign investments.
• However, the risk of a global economic slowdown and persistent domestic debt challenges could dampen growth.

Social Trends

• Efforts to address inequality and promote rural development will be critical for long-term stability.
• Youth-driven movements for change are expected to gain momentum, potentially reshaping Thailand’s political and social landscape.

2024 was a pivotal year for Thailand, marked by significant political shifts, economic resilience, and a society grappling with old challenges and new possibilities. While uncertainties remain, 2025 holds the promise of progress if the government can deliver on its economic and social agendas. With a dynamic leader at the helm, Thailand stands at a crossroads, with opportunities to redefine its path toward prosperity and inclusivity.

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BRIEF FOCUS ON TOURISM

Thailand’s tourism sector has shown a robust recovery in 2024, approaching pre-pandemic levels. In 2019, the country welcomed approximately 39.9 million international visitors.

As of October 2024, Thailand has recorded about 27 million tourist arrivals, aligning with the government’s full-year target of 36.7 million.

Looking ahead, Thailand aims to attract 40 million foreign tourists in 2025, surpassing the pre-pandemic record.

This optimistic outlook is supported by several factors:

Visa Policy Enhancements: The Thai government has implemented visa waiver schemes to facilitate easier entry for tourists.

Increased Flight Capacity: Airlines are expanding services to Thailand, improving accessibility for international travellers.

Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with major travel platforms like Trip.com and Expedia are underway to boost tourist numbers.

While the resurgence in tourism is promising, the industry continues to face challenges, including the need to manage high tourist volumes sustainably and to ensure that the benefits of tourism are equitably distributed across the country.